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Question

Demand Planner - Seasonality Profiles

  • February 10, 2025
  • 1 reply
  • 72 views

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  • Sidekick (Partner)
  • 35 replies

I’ve been testing out seasonal profiles in demand planner (Cloud 23R1), but I am struggling to understand the results and hoping someone may be able to explain the detail.

 

My understanding is when you create a seasonal profile and then apply it to a forecast, the total forecast sum will be adjusted by the seasonality index for each period.

 

To test, I created a forecast part & single base flow. I then created a manual seasonal profile for the part. I created the forecast (18 months, Best Fit) , then compared the figures with and without the seasonal profile applied.

 

Questions:

  1. Why does the total forecast sum for Y1 reduce from 166,905 to 102,596? If I calculate the seasonality index based on the 102,596, for Y1, it lines up, but I cannot explain where the 102,596 has come from?
  2. Why is the system forecast Jan-June Y2 now the exact same values as Jan-June Y1 when seasonality is applied? Before seasonality is applied Y2 system forecast values are different.

 

 

1 reply

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  • Author
  • Sidekick (Partner)
  • 35 replies
  • May 1, 2025

To update my own thread, after testing in the Demand Plan client, the change in total forecast seems to be because the ‘Best Fit’ forecast model, changes when a seasonal profile is applied in the Forecast model tab on the Demand Forecast screen.

 

For example before a Seasonal profile is applied

Best Fit = Browns Level/Trend

When seasonality is applied (on the demand forecast screen, after create forecast job) the base forecast model changes to

Best Fit = Moving Average 3 Periods

 

I noticed if the Seasonal profile is applied before running the create forecast job but then removed, the Best Fit model does not update, so it is much easier to see the impact of the seasonality.

 

Is this a bug or expected behavior? 


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