Question

Changing forecast within the planning time fence

  • 8 June 2023
  • 4 replies
  • 104 views
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We have MS Level 1 parts that are manufactured and many that are purchased (finished goods).

All have a demand time of 2 days.

MS Level 1 parts that are manufactured have a planning time fence of 20 days, and the planning time fence of those that are purchased reflect the purchase lead times of the parts, typically 50+ days, many above 100 days.

For manufactured parts we tend to set a production plan for the next 3 weeks, and will not change the forecast in the planning time fence.

For purchased parts with such a long lead time (planning time fence) we believe that we should make changes to the forecast if we expect that demand will change. By making such changes and being able to see the forecast in the planning time fence we would be able to communicate risks, such as when we see we will go into negative on-hand, and we may be able to act to expedite purchase orders, for example choosing a faster mode of transport.

What is the best practice for managing the planning time fence and forecasts within the planning time fence for purchased parts with such long lead times? 

4 replies

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Userlevel 6
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Hi @Basil,

One suggestion would be to use the safety stock or time phased safety stock (if demand fluctuation is seasonal). Also using the min lot size would helps.

Regards,

Mithun K V

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Hi Mithun K V,

We are using safety stock to cover supply and demand variance. If we know that the forecast should be increased or decreased in 8 weeks time, shouldn’t we change it, but be able to see this in the planning time fence period and IPAP?

F
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Userlevel 6
Badge +17

Hi @Basil ,

For long lead time parts, yes we may need to change the forecast within the planning time fence to have a better visibility of the actual forecasts. You can see the the forecasts in the IPAP screen if you enable Show Unconsumed Forecast in IPAP in MS level 1. But when you change the forecast within the planning time fence the additional supplies needed will be created first day outside the planning time fence ( this is where safety stocks come handy) and if supply need to reduced then this should be adjusted manually.

If you want to simulate and understand the demand supply situations before doing the changes to the forecast then you can make use of Multilevel Availability check screen.

Is this what you are looking for ?? Sorry, if my understanding is wrong here.

Regards,

Mithun K V

 

B
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Hi Mithun K V,

Thank you. That was very helpful.

Regards,

Basil

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